000-113 - IBM Systems Storage Solution Design Entry/Midrange for DS series v1 Real Exam Questions
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IBM outline
IBM Deep Dive: approach Shift riding boom; alluring Share price And Dividend Yield | 000-113 cheat sheet and Latest Topics
photograph: Reuters, Simplivest graphics
investment ThesisIn his July 2020 investment Outlook, invoice Gross informed IBM as a inventory that he likes. invoice Gross is frequently pointed out as the “Bond King” and turned into a co-founding father of PIMCO. He left the enterprise in a nasty public combat but remains – in their opinion – one of the vital gold standard minds within the funding trade. When he talks, they hear.
IBM is successfully pivoting itself away from its declining legacy items and towards growth as a cloud, software, and capabilities business. Importantly, IBM’s cloud offerings are within the niche of hybrid cloud and are sufficiently differentiated from public cloud behemoths like Amazon web features, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.
60% of IBM’s revenue is recurring, and the enterprise touts a long-tenured, extremely various consumer base. The enterprise’s venture functions can be lumpy, although, as evidenced by using their decline right through the COVID-19 Pandemic.
For the primary time in over a decade, they predict IBM to return to sustained increase in 2021, driven by using a a hit company transition. IBM’s latest valuation metrics are according to its long-term averages, but those averages were of a corporation in decline. considering that IBM’s forecasted increase, the existing valuation stages are extremely desirable. What’s more, the business will pay a good-looking dividend yield of 5.3% and has a 25-yr history of increasing its annual dividend.
aspect 1: monetary efficiencyIBM’s organic profits increase has ranged between 0% and -5.9% considering 2016, pushed through declines in the company’s legacy businesses. The business’s total growth figures are traditionally a 1-2 percent elements bigger than the organic boom numbers.
profitsIBM did supply tips expectations for the FY 2020, but analyst estimates element to total earnings declining -three.9% for the 12 months, which they estimate to be an biological income decline of -5.6%. The contraction is driven via shrinking legacy companies and reduce profits from latest customers as their volumes have diminished. A element of IBM’s revenue is tied to consumer quantity (i.e. airline tickets processed), which has declined as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Analyst consensus forecasts call for revenue to develop within the 1% to 2% range in 2021 and 2022, pushed via powerful growth in cloud and AI items. This sustained boom is an important turning point for the enterprise and the ordinary funding thesis in IBM.
IBM complete income increase
Chart & organic growth Calculations: Simplivest; source facts: S&P global Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) 2020, 2021, and 2022 are analyst consensus estimates; (2) LTM is for the last twelve months ending June 30, 2020
section incomeIBM operates in 5 simple segments (1) Cloud & Cognitive utility, (2) international business functions, (3) global expertise capabilities, (4) methods, and (5) global Financing.
IBM income with the aid of segment
LTM as of June 30, 2020
Chart: Simplivest; source statistics: S&P international Market Intelligence
IBM’s return to boom is driven by way of the endured success of the company’s strategic pivot towards routine application and features. The Cloud & Cognitive software segment leads the way.
With routine profits and strong secular tailwinds, IBM’s Cloud & Cognitive utility segment is the foremost performing unit posting consistent annual increase. fresh new client wins include Adobe, Salesforce, SAP, field, and Slack. All are the usage of IBM’s hybrid cloud platform to modernize mission-essential workloads.
The world business features phase grants massive-scale consulting initiatives, many of which were paused due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. These initiatives are vital to the long-time period success of IBM’s shoppers, and they predict purchasers will reengage these initiatives as quickly as they could.
The profits declines within the world expertise features section are driven through divestitures of discontinued operations and lower demand for a few of IBM’s legacy features.
IBM’s methods and world Financing segments are also declining due to lower demand for IBM’s legacy hardware items. These segments symbolize 13% of standard income, and their modest declines do not materially have an effect on IBM’s typical outcomes.
Cloud & Cognitive utility segment
international business services segment
world expertise services section
methods phase
global Financing section
Charts: Simplivest; source facts: S&P international Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) revenue is proven gross of intercompany eliminations; (2) LTM is for the closing twelve months ending June 30, 2020
Gross earningsIBM’s gross earnings greenbacks lowered from $40.7 billion in 2015 to $36.5 billion in 2019 (a CAGR of -2.7%). Gross margins declined from 49.8% in 2015 to forty seven.three% in 2019. The decline in gross earnings bucks changed into basically driven with the aid of the discount in profits, assisted by using a modest decline in gross margins.
Analyst consensus estimates call for IBM to grow gross earnings dollars in every of the subsequent three years, pushed by means of expanding margins and modest growth in salary. The margin increases are as a result of the enterprise’s mix shift in opposition t greater-margin products and services.
IBM Gross income
Chart: Simplivest; source facts: S&P global Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) LTM is for the remaining twelve months ending June 30, 2020; (2) 2020, 2021, and 2022 are analyst consensus estimates
The chart below helps the forecast of income mix shift enhancing overall gross margins.
IBM income Composition pressure Margin growth
Chart: Simplivest; supply records: S&P world Market Intelligence
EBITDAIBM’s EBITDA greenbacks diminished from $20.4 billion in 2015 to $sixteen.8 billion in 2019 (a CAGR of -6.four%). EBITDA margins declined from 24.9% in 2015 to 21.8% in 2019. The decline in EBITDA dollars changed into essentially driven by the reduction in gross profit dollars, magnified by using the semi-fastened nature of the working expenses.
As IBM turns the nook to increase, analyst consensus estimates call for the enterprise to EBITDA dollars in each of the next three years, driven by elevated gross profit greenbacks and leveraged via the semi-mounted nature of the working prices.
IBM EBITDA
Chart: Simplivest; supply statistics: S&P world Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) LTM is for the remaining twelve months ending June 30, 2020; (2) 2020, 2021, and 2022 are analyst consensus estimates
IBM studies web earnings before Tax on a segment level, which offers us perception into the profitability level for every phase.
As proven in the table under, the segments have solid income margins. One brilliant spot is with the global enterprise capabilities margin, which accelerated from 7.9% in 2017 to 10.3% in the LTM length due to IBM shedding its reduce margin discontinued operations.
The main blemish looks to be the margin decline of the Cloud & Cognitive utility phase, but here is basically as a result of the acquisition of crimson Hat, which generates decrease margins than IBM’s other corporations during this segment. They predict section margins to continue to be across the LTM tiers going forward.
IBM segment internet earnings MARGINS
Chart: Simplivest; source information: S&P international Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) phase EBITDA is gross of intercompany eliminations; (2) LTM is for the closing twelve months ending June 30, 2020
internet revenueIBM’s web earnings dollars lowered from $13.2 billion in 2015 to $9.four billion in 2019 (a CAGR of -12.9%). internet margins declined from 16.1% in 2015 to 12.2% in 2019. The decline in web revenue bucks became primarily pushed by using the discount in EBITDA greenbacks, magnified through the accelerated amortization and hobby price resulting from the crimson Hat acquisition.
As IBM turns the nook to boom, analyst consensus estimates call for the enterprise to EBITDA dollars in every of the subsequent three years, driven by using elevated gross profit dollars and leveraged through the semi-fixed nature of the operating charges.
For 2020 and beyond, analyst consensus estimates call for web income bucks to grow and for web margins to stabilize around 14.5%.
IBM net profits
Chart: Simplivest; source statistics: S&P global Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) LTM is for the ultimate twelve months ending June 30, 2020; (2) 2020, 2021, and 2022 are analyst consensus estimates
Free money moveIBM is a juggernaut of a cash movement generator, providing amazing UFCF and LFCF. The cash move profile effects from the enterprise’s healthy income margins and asset-easy enterprise model.
With the expected increase in revenue and strong profit margins over the next three years, they are expecting each UFCF and LFCF to demonstrate growth.
IBM Free money flow
table & Calculations: Simplivest; source information: S&P global Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) They calculate taxes on unlevered salary and the tax take care of assuming a tax cost of 37.5%; (2) LTM is for the closing twelve months ending June 30, 2020
element 2: Return on fundingLike different expertise-centric agencies, IBM generates tremendously desirable return on capital metrics, but one has to look further than the headline numbers shown in the table under. The ROIC metric, in selected, isn't attractive.
IBM ROIC & ROE
Chart: Simplivest; supply information: S&P world Market Intelligence
notice: LTM is for the remaining twelve months ending June 30, 2020
The calculations of ROIC and ROE include all intangible assets. as an instance the genuine incomes energy of the underlying operating business, some traders, together with Warren Buffett, want to review return on capital metrics using most effective tangible assets (except for goodwill and different intangible belongings created on account of acquisitions). As shown within the desk beneath, IBM’s ROIC is tremendously better when casting off the influence of intangible property.
IBM Return on Tangible Invested Capital
Calculations: Simplivest; supply facts: S&P international Market Intelligence
observe: LTM is for the closing twelve months ending June 30, 2020
element 3: ResilienceWhen assessing an organization’s resilience, they assessment an organization’s (1) typical leverage, (2) mounted can charge insurance ratio, and (3) efficiency during the final financial downturn.
LeverageThe GAAP suggestions for accounting for leases changed enormously in 2020. businesses ought to now account for their working leases as if they were debt. The alternate in accounting obscures comparability of leverage to common benchmarks, so they now have eliminated capitalized leases from complete debt in their calculations below.
IBM materially improved its debt load when it took on $32 billion of further debt right through 2019 to facilitate the acquisition purple Hat.
The business’s total leverage ratio is three.10x, and its web leverage ratio is 2.20x. These ranges are comparatively cheap and prudent.
IBM Leverage
Chart and Calculations: Simplivest; supply statistics: S&P international Market Intelligence
notice: LTM is for the final twelve months ending June 30, 2020
fixed charge coverage RatioIBM’s FCCR is presently 1.11x, which is low. Their calculation uses the business’s suggested EBITDA, which is conservative. Debt credit agreements typically use an Adjusted EBITDA concept when calculating the FCCR, which contains additions to mentioned EBITDA for one-time fees and the professional-forma impact for acquisitions. additionally, the present component of LT Debt within the denominator is also probably conservative as IBM will greater than seemingly refinance that debt and never pay it off with its cash balances.
IBM fixed cost coverage Ratio
LTM as of June 30, 2020
Chart and Calculations: Simplivest; source facts: S&P world Market Intelligence
notice: existing element of LT Debt Excludes Capitalized lease tasks
efficiency through the DownturnWith the COVID-19 Pandemic, they are currently going through a length of significant financial uncertainty. The story continues to be being written about how IBM will fare through this length. they will "seem at the tape" from how the company carried out all the way through the closing recession as a data factor that may inform us how it will perform throughout this latest duration of uncertainty and any future recession.
IBM profits through the final Recession
Chart and Calculations: Simplivest; supply records: S&P global Market Intelligence
IBM carried out surprisingly well right through this period, with profits declining -eight% from 2008 to 2009 and returning to increase in 2010. This income performance illustrates the significance of the items and capabilities that IBM offers. The enterprise’s salary composition is more suitable now than it changed into in 2008. it'll supply buyers peace of intellect for the present duration of economic uncertainty and for when the next recession occurs.
element four: Alignmentbackyard shareholders of a public company have little handle over the administration of a company. They need to have confidence that the management team is performing in the highest quality interests of the shareholders. in spite of everything, it's the choices that the administration team will make in order to power traders’ returns. they are blissful with IBM’s shareholder-friendly conduct and the alignment with the management team.
DividendsIBM can pay a steady dividend and generates an attractive dividend yield of 5.three%. In 2019, the company paid out $5.7 billion in dividends to shareholders or $6.43 per share. IBM has improved its dividend each year for the remaining 25 years. Analyst consensus estimates are pointing in opposition t a endured boost in dividends per share from the present amount of $6.49 to $7.23 in 2022.
IBM Dividend evaluation
Chart: Simplivest; source records: S&P international Market Intelligence
Notes: (1) 2020, 2021, and 2022 are analyst consensus estimates; (2) LTM is for the final twelve months ending June 30, 2020
equity Repurchasesearlier than acquiring pink Hat, IBM always repurchased its regular inventory, spending between $3 billion - $5 billion each and every year. The business’s repurchases had been at valuation multiples that have been roughly in-line with IBM’s long-time period averages.
during 2019 and the LTM duration ending June 30, 2020, the company curtailed its repurchasing undertaking to preserve cash for the purple Hat transaction. They predict IBM to resume fairness repurchases in the $3 billion - $5 billion latitude each and every year.
IBM Share Repurchases & Multiples Paid
Chart & Wtg. Avg varied Paid Calculations: Simplivest; supply statistics: S&P world Market Intelligence
be aware: LTM is for the last twelve months ending June 30, 2020
Shares superbbecause of the equity repurchasing pastime described above, IBM’s shares of standard stock superb declined from 2015 to 2019 by using eight.2%, from 966 million to 887 million (a CAGR of -2.0%).
IBM average Shares unbelievable
Chart: Simplivest; source records: S&P international Market Intelligence
note: each period is as of December 31 of the corresponding 12 months except LTM, which is as of June 30, 2020
Insider possessionThe most excellent alignment between business insiders and out of doors shareholders is colossal ownership via members of the company’s management crew. IBM insiders personal 1.0 million shares, representing 0.11% of the company's striking shares and price $one hundred twenty million at the present stock expense.
IBM summary possession
As of June 30, 2020
Chart: Simplivest; source records: S&P global Market Intelligence
On a percentage groundwork, IBM’s insider possession is low; although, here is no longer dazzling for a huge capitalization enterprise with a market capitalization of $a hundred and ten.three billion. hence, it is quintessential to seem at the greenback value of the possession stake.
On a dollar value basis, IBM’s insider possession is first rate, with insiders possessing a cumulative $120 million. they are glad to look insider possession unfold throughout the total senior administration crew.
IBM detailed Insider possession
As of August 21, 2020
desk: Simplivest; source facts: S&P global Market Intelligence
we are able to in no way be aware of, of direction, the net price of members of a corporation’s administration group, so it's unimaginable to assert certainly what dollar amount of fairness possession is material to each and every grownup.
So they count on an easy rule of thumb that measures the cost of a supervisor’s inventory possession relative to his/her cash compensation:
we're happy to look IBM having very high tiers of insider ownership relative to the money compensation of the entire administration group.
IBM Insider possession analysis
Chart & Calculations: Simplivest; source information: S&P world Market Intelligence; IBM SEC submitting (2019 DEF-14A)
Notes: (1) insider possession as of August 21, 2020; (2) commonplace compensation is calculated for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019
ValuationPulling a web page out of the Buffett investing playbook, they favor to make investments in corporations at reasonable or discounted valuations. If they like a company, but the current price isn't desirable, they put it on their watchlist.
inventory fee historyIBM’s stock rate declined from a excessive of $197.77 on April 14, 2014, to a low of $ninety five.39 on March 20, 2020 (in the middle of the COVID-19 undergo market). The inventory at present trades at $123.sixteen (as of August 21, 2020).
IBM Share fee and EV/EBITDA Valuation
facts for ultimate Seven Years
Chart & Calculations: Simplivest; source records: S&P world Market Intelligence
Valuation MultiplesWe like to evaluate a company’s latest valuation multiples in opposition t its lengthy-time period average, the market, and the field. For IBM, all comparisons are favorable.
IBM is trading according to its seven-year regular valuations throughout all important valuation metrics. The notable ameliorations, though, are (1) the LTM economic metrics used within the ratios (e.g. profits, EBITDA, or earnings) are currently depressed due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and (2) most importantly, IBM is popping the nook against growth. The historic valuations had been all all over a time when profits and profits have been declining as IBM became in the early tiers of reworking it into a utility and capabilities corporation. while this strategic pivot is not yet complete, the transformation is smartly on its manner, and they predict the enterprise to return to increase in 2021. for that reason, the current share cost is captivating – investors can buy nowadays shares of a turning out to be enterprise at the identical valuations they prior to now bought shares of a shrinking business.
IBM Valuation evaluation
As of August 21, 2020
Chart & Calculations: Simplivest; supply records: S&P global Market Intelligence
be aware: UFCF Yield is calculated as [5-Year Avg UFCF] / [Current Enterprise Value]
dangersInvestments are on no account a “certain factor”, and IBM isn't any exception. beneath they spotlight some risks that may negatively have an impact on an investment in IBM.
Strategic Pivot: once typical for its hardware and terrific computing gadget, IBM is within the middle of a strategic pivot away from computing infrastructure and in opposition t cloud, software, and features. The shift makes complete sense, however the a hit execution is complicated.
Mitigating elements: IBM is more than midway through this method shift. After years of shedding legacy property and experiencing income declines, analyst estimates are for the business to come to boom in 2021. IBM’s market share in quickly-becoming industries like cloud and AI assist this increase.
Acquisition Integration: IBM is early in its manner of integrating the acquisition of purple Hat, the greatest in the business’s history. however purple Hat will continue to be run as a standalone company, there continues to be possibility of effectively integrating its products with IBM’s.
Mitigating elements: IBM isn't new to acquisitions, and the early indications are effective. On the July 20 revenue call, Arvind Krishna (NYSE:CEO) provided a lot of examples of how crimson Hat and IBM partnership is positively impacting latest and potential consumers.
incredibly competitive environment: IBM faces competition from probably the most wealthiest businesses on earth, specifically Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. These opponents have greater market share than IBM in the cloud area and current bold opponents.
Mitigating factors: IBM does not intend to compete head-to-head with AWS, Azure, or Google within the public cloud area. instead, it has carved out a spot within the inner most and hybrid cloud.
Low Insider possession: administration owns 0.11% of IBM’s magnificent shares, value $120 million. This possession stake creates the chance for company chance – where the managers of the company have conflicting hobbies from the enterprise's shareholders.
Mitigating factors: Insider ownership is extensively diverse and is multiples of managers’ annual cash compensation.
summaryeconomic performance
Return on funding
Resilience
Alignment
Valuation
risk components
general
Disclosure: i'm/we are lengthy IBM.
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